The Russian Economy Ministry expects GDP growth in the fourth quarter, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters today, adding that GDP figures for the second and third quarters could be lower than in the corresponding periods from last year, but higher than in the first quarter of 2009.

He said that inflation in March would be lower compared to both March 2008 and February 2009. In February, it reached 1.7 percent. “It is very important for inflation to be lower than in March 2008,” he emphasized.

The Economy Ministry has no plans to change its oil price forecast for 2009, according to Klepach. “We had considered the possibility of higher oil prices, too, but they are very hard to monitor. The average price could rise above our projection of $41 a barrel,” he noted, describing oil prices as another factor to support personal incomes and investment in the country.

Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina reported last week that Russia’s GDP was down 8 percent in January and February 2009, and on the whole, a 7 percent decline was expected in the first quarter of the year. According to the government’s revised socioeconomic development for 2009 approved on March 19, GDP is expected to drop 2.2 percent, and investment 13.8 percent, while trade will climb 0.3 percent. Capital expenditures will decline by about 1 percent of GDP, to 3.1 percent of GDP. Investment loans are also expected to decrease by a factor of 2.8.

The economic decline will continue in the first half of 2009 since the government’s anti-crisis measures are expected to take effect only towards the end of the second quarter. GDP growth could be down 4-5 percent, and investment might contract by 15-18 percent.