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Indexes
Market Participants' Indexes
Consensus forecast


Cbonds Consensus, May 2012

The poll was held on 25.04.2012-28.04.2012. Number of respondents: 14. Publication date: 10.05.2012

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 28.04.2012
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.51 0.5 0.3
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.7
  
0.4
  
0.5
  
0.5
  
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
0.4
  
Citigroup
0.5
  
ICEF, HSE
0.5
  
0.4
  
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
0.5
  
0.6
 0.5-0.7 
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8 8 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 4 4 4
3M LIBOR USD  0.46 0.47 47
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.7 6.7 6.75
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 5.88 5.8 5.89
USD/RUR  29.68 29.5 29.42
EUR/USD  1.31 1.31 1.32
Brent Crude 118 117 119.57
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1648 1650 1651.25


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 28.04.2012
UST 10Y YTM  1.98 1.95 1.91
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
1.9
 1.8-2.0 
1.95
  
1.95
 1.8-2.1 
Citigroup
2.25
  
2
 1.8-2.2 
1.95
  
1.9
  
1.95
 1.85-2.05 
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4 4 4.04
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.08 7.05 7.04
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.63 7.6 7.61
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.23 8.2 7.83
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.28 8.28 8.47
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.9 8.9 8.9
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 10.8 10.8 10.8


Cbonds Consensus, April 2012

The poll was held on 25.03.2012-30.03.2012. Number of respondents: 13. Publication date: 10.04.2012

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 30.03.2012
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.5 0.6 0.6
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.6
  
0.6
  
0.45
 0.4-0.5 
0.6
  
Citigroup
0.6
  
ICEF, HSE
0.5
  
0.5
  
0.6
 0.5 -0.7 
0.5
  
ROSBANK
0.5
  
Sberbank ()
0.4
  
0.6
 0.5-0.7 
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  7.96 8 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 4 4 4
3M LIBOR USD  0.47 0.47 0.47
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.52 6.7 6.73
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 5.6 5.6 5.7
USD/RUR  29.6 29.6 29.29
EUR/USD  1.32 1.32 1.33
Brent Crude 122 120 122.81
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1684 1700 1662.5


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 30.03.2012
UST 10Y YTM  2.27 2.3 2.21
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
2.1
 1.95-2.3 
2.3
  
2.15
  
2.15
 2.1-2.2 
2.3
  
Citigroup
2.4
  
2.37
  
2.3
 2.2-2.4 
2.5
  
ROSBANK
2.15
 2.0-2.3 
2.25
 2.15-2.35 
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.07 4.1 3.98
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.05 7.05 7.07
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.53 7.48 7.46
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.91 8.1 7.91
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.27 8.15 8.43
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.08 8.95 9.08
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 10.78 11 10.78


Cbonds Consensus, March 2012

The poll was held on 22.02.2012-29.02.2012. Number of respondents: 11. Publication date: 11.03.2012

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 29.02.2012
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.6 0.6 0.4
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.7
  
0.7
  
0.56
 0.5-0.6 
0.45
 0.4-0.5 
Citigroup
0.8
  
0.5
 0.4-06 
0.5
  
0.7
 0.6-0.8 
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8 8 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 4.08 4 4
3M LIBOR USD 0.46 0.46 0.48
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.52 6.7 6.78
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 5.48 5.48 5.58
USD/RUR  29.69 29.5 28.95
EUR/USD 1.31 1.31 1.34
Brent Crude 119 120 123
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1745 1763 1770


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 29.02.2012
UST 10Y YTM  2.04 2.04 1.97
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
1.95
 1.85-2.05 
2.1
  
2.1
  
2.02
  
1.95
 1.90-2.00 
Citigroup
2.05
 2.05-2.07 
2.1
 2.0-2.2 
2
  
ROSBANK
2
  
2.1
 2.0-2.15 
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.03 4.05 4.1
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.08 7.1 7.15
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.47 7.5 7.51
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.15 8.2 8
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.29 8.19 8.64
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.38 9.25 9.38
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 10.92 11 10.92


Cbonds Consensus, February 2012

The poll was held on 24.01.2012-31.01.2012. Number of respondents: 12. Publication date: 09.02.2012

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 31.01.2012
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.6 0.5 0.5
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.6
 0.5-0.6 
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
0.5
  
Citigroup
1
  
0.4
 0.4-0.6 
0.5
  
0.6
 0.4-0.7 
Sberbank ()
0.4
  
0.85
 0.5-0.95 
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8 8 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 4 4 4
3M LIBOR USD  0.55 0.51 0.54
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.56 6.75 6.97
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 5.49 5.4 5.5
USD/RUR  30.7 30.63 30.36
EUR/USD 1.29 1.29 1.32
Brent Crude 111 110 111.06
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1740 1725 1744


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 31.01.2012
UST 10Y YTM  1.95 1.93 1.79
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
1.9
 1.75-2.0 
1.9
  
1.9
  
Citigroup
1.95
  
2
 1.9-2.1 
1.9
  
2.15
 2.05-2.15 
2
  
ROSBANK
1.75
  
2
 1.9-2.05 
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.31 4.4 4.57
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.23 7.3 7.45
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.57 7.65 7.76
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.32 8.25 8.12
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.63 8.63 8.76
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.75 9.75 9.75
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 10.5 10.5 10.5


Cbonds Consensus 2012

20.12.2011-31.12.2011

World economy Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2011
Global GDP, % 3 3.2 3.5
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
3.5
  
3.5
 3.0-4.0 
2.75
 2.5-3.0 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
3.9
  
Citigroup
2.5
  
3.8
 3.5-4.0 
HSBC Bank (RR)
1.9
  
MinFin Russia
3.7
  
2.5
  
3.16
  
2.2
 1.9-2.3 
ROSBANK
3.5
  
Sberbank ()
3.5
  
The European University at St Petersburg
3.4
 3.3-3.5 
2.5
 2.3-2.7 
2.5
 2.5-3.5 
2
  
US GDP, % 1.9 1.9 1.8
Eurozone GDP, % 0.4 0.4 1.6
Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), % 2.3 2.3 3.4
Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), % 2.1 2 2.7
Urals, US$/ barrel 104.2 105 107.1
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1822 1750 1531
S&P 500 1279 1285 1257.6
EUR/USD  1.3 1.3 1.29


Russian economy Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2011
Real GDP Indicator (YoY, Quarterly), %  3.36 3.5 4.1
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
3.6
  
Arsagera Asset Management Company
4.3
  
3.5
 3.0-4.0 
2.3
 2.0-2.6 
4.1
 4.0-4.2 
3.9
  
2.5
  
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
3.6
  
Citigroup
3.5
  
Credit Agricole CIB
1.7
  
3.5
 3.3-4.0 
HSBC Bank (RR)
3
  
3.3
  
MinFin Russia
3.7
  
3.4
  
4
  
3
 2.55-3.45 
4.3
  
ROSBANK
3.2
  
Renaissance Capital
2.3
  
Sberbank ()
3.8
  
The European University at St Petersburg
2.6
  
Troika Dialog Investment Company
4
  
4
 3.8-4.2 
2.8
 2.5-3.8 
3.5
  
Industrial production, % 3.79 3.5 5.1
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %  6.7 6.63 6.1
Unemployment, % 6.6 6.5 6.4
Current account, % of GDP 3.21 2.8 6.1
Trade balance, % of GDP 8.17 8 12.3
Budget deficit, % of GDP -1.24 -1.5 0.8
Real disposable income, % 3.36 3.5 1.5
Capex, % 5.65 5.15 7.7
Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP -2.68 -2.1 -5.5
Russia Gross External Debt, USD bln 529 540 538.9
Russia International Reserves, USD bln 525 530 497.4
USD/RUR  31.41 31.23 32.02
EUR/RUR  40.88 41.42 41.41
Dual-currency basket/RUR  35.96 35.88 36.24
RTSI 1720 1700 1381.87


Key interest rates, % Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2011
Federal funds rate, %  0.25 0.25 0.25
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
0.375
 0.5-1.0 
0.25
  
Arsagera Asset Management Company
0.25
  
0.25
  
0.25
 0-0.25 
0.25
 0-0.25 
0.25
 0-0.25 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
0.25
  
Citigroup
0.25
  
0.25
  
HSBC Bank (RR)
0.25
 0-0.25 
0.25
 0-0.25 
0.25
 0-0.25 
0.25
  
0.25
 0-0.25 
0.25
  
0.25
  
ROSBANK
0.25
  
Sberbank ()
0.25
 0-0.25 
The European University at St Petersburg
0.1
  
0.25
  
0.25
  
ECB refinancing rate, % 0.74 0.75 1
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  7.77 7.75 8
Deposit rate, Overnight, % 3.9 4 4
3M LIBOR USD  0.49 0.5 0.58
3M EURIBOR 1.02 0.95 1.36
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.41 6.38 7.22
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 6.29 6.3 0


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2011
UST 10Y YTM  2.3 2.2 1.88
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
2.2
 1.8-2.8 
3
  
Arsagera Asset Management Company
1.6
  
2.5
  
2
 1.85-2.15 
1.95
 1.9-2.0 
1.9
 1.7-2.2 
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
3.25
  
Citigroup
2.45
  
2.75
 1.8-2.75 
HSBC Bank (RR)
2.2
 2.2-2.3 
2
  
2
  
2.5
  
1.7
 1.6-2.6 
2
  
2.5
  
ROSBANK
2.25
  
The European University at St Petersburg
2.2
  
1.9
 1.7-2.1 
3.5
  
Bund 10Y YTM 2.07 2.05 1.83
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.46 4.5 4.6
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.34 7.3 7.5
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.81 7.9 8.11
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.2 8.2 8.3
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.21 8.2 8.75
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.17 9 9.17
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 11.07 11 11.07


Cbonds Consensus, December 2011

The poll was held on 23.11.2011-30.11.2011. Number of respondents: 13. Publication date: 12.12.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 30.11.2011
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.8 0.7 0.4
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.7
  
0.7
 0.6-0.8 
0.6
 0.5-0.7 
0.6
 0.5-0.7 
ICEF, HSE
0.5
  
0.9
  
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
0.6
  
1.3
 1.3-1.5 
ROSBANK
0.9
  
Sberbank ()
0.6
  
1.2
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.23 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.73 3.75 3.75
3M LIBOR USD 0.5 0.5 0.53
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.75 6.8 6.92
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 6.48 6.35 6.07
USD/RUR  30.97 31 31.32
EUR/USD 1.34 1.34 1.34
Brent Crude 109 110 110.37
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1755 1750 1746


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 30.11.2011
UST 10Y YTM  2.16 2.16 2.08
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
2.2
 2.0-2.4 
2.25
  
2.1
  
2.125
 2.10-2.15 
2.3
 2.0-2.6 
2.06
  
2.05
  
ROSBANK
2.2
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.38 4.4 4.63
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.49 7.45 7.54
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 8.02 8 8.2
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.23 8.3 8.01
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.22 8.1 8.8
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.5 9.5 9.5
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 11.75 11.75 11.75


Cbonds Consensus, November 2011

The poll was held on 23.10.2011-31.10.2011. Number of respondents: 12. Publication date: 09.11.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 31.10.2011
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.57 0.6 0.5
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.7
  
0.7
  
0.7
 0.6-0.8 
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
ICEF, HSE
0.8
  
0.4
  
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
0.2
  
0.5
  
ROSBANK
0.7
  
Sberbank ()
0.6
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.23 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.75 3.75 3.75
3M LIBOR USD  0.45 0.45 0.43
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.74 6.77 6.76
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 6.73 6.6 6.17
USD/RUR  31.07 30.65 29.9
EUR/USD 1.36 1.36 1.42
Brent Crude 106 105 109.19
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1732 1720 1722


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 31.10.2011
UST 10Y YTM  2.13 2.13 2.11
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
2.2
 1.9-2.4 
2.5
  
1.8
  
2.075
 2.0-2.15 
2.15
 2.0-2.3 
2.03
  
2.2
  
ROSBANK
2.1
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.51 4.5 4.66
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.6 7.5 7.4
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 8.12 8.05 7.93
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.41 8.25 7.89
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.53 8.5 8.32
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.33 9.33 9.33
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 11.5 11.5 11.5


Cbonds Consensus, October 2011

The poll was held on 23.09.2011-30.09.2011. Number of respondents: 9. Publication date: 10.10.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 30.09.2011
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.23 0.2 0
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
0.1
 0-0.2 
0.2
 0.1-0.3 
0.1
  
0.01
  
ROSBANK
0.3
  
Sberbank ()
0.4
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.25 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.81 3.75 3.75
3M LIBOR USD 0.43 0.45 0.37
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.83 7 6.54
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 7.41 7.4 6.7
USD/RUR  33.17 33.1 31.88
EUR/USD 1.3 1.3 1.36
Brent Crude 95 95 102.15
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1674 1650 1620


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual as of 30.09.2011
UST 10Y YTM  1.77 1.78 1.92
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
1.8
 1.7-1.9 
1.8
  
1.7
 1.6-1.8 
1.75
 1.6-1.9 
1.65
  
1.8
 1.8-1.95 
1.65
  
ROSBANK
2
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 5.76 5.85 4.69
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.96 8 7.6
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 8.68 8.75 8.34
Muni YTM (3Y), % 8.65 8.7 8.24
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.65 8.9 8.42


Cbonds Consensus, September 2011

The poll was held on 23.08.2011-31.08.2011. Number of respondents: 12. Publication date: 07.09.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.21 0.18 -0.2
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.5
  
0
 -0.1 - +0.1 
0.25
 0.2-0.3 
ICEF, HSE
0.05
  
0.2
 0.1-0.3 
0.1
  
0
  
ROSBANK
0.15
  
Sberbank ()
0.2
  
0.6
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.25 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.5 3.5 3.5
3M LIBOR USD 0.33 0.34 0.33
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  4.72 4.8 4.83
USD/RUR  29.23 29.1 28.86
EUR/USD 1.41 1.42 1.45
Brent Crude 108 109 114
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1834 1830 1813


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median
UST 10Y YTM  2.14 2.15 2.22
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
2.3
 2.15-2.45 
2.2
  
2.2
 2.1-2.3 
2.35
  
2.087
  
2.1
  
1.9
  
ROSBANK
2
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.21 4.22 4.38
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 6.83 6.8 6.7
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.53 7.55 7.5
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.7 7.75 7.48
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 5.12 5.1 5
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.54 7.58 7.55
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.38 8.38 8.38


Cbonds Consensus, August 2011

The poll was held on 21.07.2011-29.07.2011. Number of respondents: 10. Publication date: 08.08.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.11 0.1 0
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0
  
0
 -0.1-+0.1 
0.1
  
0.05
 0.0-0.1 
0.2
 0-0.3 
0.1
  
0.2
 0.1-0.2 
0.1
  
0.2
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.25 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.53 3.5 3.5
3M LIBOR USD 0.26 0.26 0.25
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  4.3 4.3 4.31
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.59 4.6 4.65
USD/RUR  27.78 27.82 27.59
EUR/USD  1.42 1.42 1.44
Brent Crude 113 112 117.9
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1621 1629 1623


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median
UST 10Y YTM  2.93 2.95 2.8
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
3
 2.80-3.15 
2.9
  
3
 2.95-3.05 
2.95
 2.90-3.0 
3
 2.9-3.2 
2.7
  
2.85
 2.6 - 3.1 
2.92
  
3.05
 3.0-3.1 
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.2 4.2 4.15
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 6.27 6.25 6.23
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.21 7.14 7.19
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.16 7.21 6.96
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.02 7.01 7.15
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.59 4.6 4.65


Cbonds Consensus, July 2011

The poll was held on 21.06.2011-30.06.2011. Number of respondents: 13. Publication date: 11.07.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.32 0.3 0.2
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.2
 0.1 - 0.3 
0.4
  
0.2
 0.1 - 0.3 
0.4
 0.3 - 0.5 
ICEF, HSE
0.3
  
0.3
  
0.3
 0.2 - 0.4 
0.3
  
0.3
  
Sberbank ()
0.3
  
0.5
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.25 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.48 3.5 3.5
3M LIBOR USD  0.25 0.25 0.25
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  4.21 4.25 4.25
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.5 4.53 4.56
USD/RUR  28.09 28 28.08
EUR/USD  1.43 1.44 1.44
Brent Crude 108 110 112.56
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1501 1500 1505.5


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median
UST 10Y YTM  3.12 3.18 3.16
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
3.2
 3.1-3.4% 
3.25
 3.2-3.3% 
3.05
 3.0-3.1% 
3
 2.9-3.2% 
2.8
  
3.4
 3.2-3.6% 
3.18
  
2.85
 2.8-2.9% 
3.35
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.47 4.47 4.46
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 6.37 6.34 6.3
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.39 7.35 7.4
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.23 7.25 7.28
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.12 7.11 7.13


Cbonds Consensus, June 2011

The poll was held on 21.05.2011-31.05.2011. Number of respondents: 8. Publication date: 09.06.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median  
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.48 0.5 0.5
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.5
  
0.5
 0.4-0.6 
0.6
  
0.4
 0.3-0.5 
0.4
 0.3-0.5 
0.5
  
Sberbank ()
0.4
  
0.5
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.25 8.25 8.25
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.5 3.5 3.5
3M LIBOR USD  0.27 0.26 0.25
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  4.2 4.2 4.25
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.61 4.6 4.59
USD/RUR  28.2 28.16 28.07
EUR/USD  1.41 1.41 1.43
Brent Crude 112 112 116.72
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1559 1550 1536.5


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median  
UST 10Y YTM  3.19 3.2 3.06
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
3.3
  
3.2
 3.15-3.25 
3.2
 3.1-3.3 
3.2
 3.18-3.22 
3.05
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.57 4.55 4.7
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 6.64 6.65 6.57
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.53 7.6 7.23
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.5 7.5 7.41
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.26 7.3 7.29


Cbonds Consensus, May 2011

The poll was held on 21.04.2011-29.04.2011. Number of respondents: 11. Publication date: 11.05.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median  
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.51 0.5 0.4
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.5
  
0.4
  
0.65
 0.55-0.75% 
ICEF, HSE
0.4
  
0.6
 0.5 - 0.7% 
0.4
  
Renaissance Capital
0.5
  
Sberbank ()
0.5
  
0.6
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.3 8.25 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.31 3.25 3
3M LIBOR USD  0.28 0.28 0.27
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  4.11 4.05 3.85
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.44 4.3 4.25
USD/RUR  27.55 27.5 27.5
EUR/USD 1.46 1.46 1.48
Brent Crude 118 119 126.28
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1519 1520 1535.5


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median  
UST 10Y YTM  3.4 3.44 3.29
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
3.5
 3.2-3.7% 
3.5
  
3.48
 3.4-3.55% 
3.4
 3.3-3.5% 
3.4
  
3.1
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.75 4.75 4.73
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 6.67 6.75 6.36
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.39 7.45 7.35
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.2 7.2 7.3
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.19 7.2 7.1
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.48 7.48 7.48
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 8.88 8.88 8.88


Cbonds Consensus, April 2011

The poll was held on 21.03.2011-31.03.2011. Number of respondents: 14. Publication date: 15.04.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (monthly), %  0.56 0.6 0.6
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.5
  
0.6
 0.5-0.7% 
0.45
 0.4-0.5% 
0.5
 0.4-0.7% 
ICEF, HSE
0.6
  
Morgan Stanley
0.5
  
0.7
 0.6 -0.8% 
0.6
  
Renaissance Capital
0.6
  
Sberbank ()
0.6
  
0.5
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.1 8 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.15 3.25 3
3M LIBOR USD  0.32 0.31 0.3
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  4.03 4 3.96
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.31 4.25 4.25
USD/RUR  28.31 28.3 28.43
EUR/USD 1.41 1.42 1.41
Brent Crude 110 111 117.3
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1429 1429 1439


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median  
UST 10Y YTM  3.56 3.5 3.46
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
3.6
 3.4-3.7% 
3.5
  
3.425
 3.35-3.50% 
3.47
 3.45-3.49% 
3.3
  
Morgan Stanley
3.6
  
3.5
 3.45-3.55% 
3.6
 3.40-3.70% 
4
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.7 4.7 4.76
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 6.46 6.5 6.65
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.34 7.3 7.46
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.38 7.35 7.39
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.15 7.05 7.24
Domestic corporate bonds (2nd tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.99 7.95 7.99
Domestic corporate bonds (3d tier), YTM (3Y), % 9.63 9 9.63


Cbonds Consensus, March 2011

The poll was held on 21.02.2011-28.02.2011. Number of respondents: 10. Publication date: 11.03.2011

Policy rates, % & Index Simple average forecast Median  
Inflation (CPI, Ukraine) (monthly), % 0.88 0.9 0.8
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.6
  
1.05
 1.0-1.1 
1.1
  
Bank of Moscow
0.9
 0.7 - 1.1 
0.7
 0.6-0.8 
1
 0.9-1.2 
Renaissance Capital
0.9
  
Sberbank ()
0.9
  
0.8
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.07 8 8
Deposit rate, O/N, % 3.1 3 3
3M LIBOR USD  0.31 0.31 0.31
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  3.94 4.08 4.01
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 4.71 4.7 4.55
USD/RUR  29.96 28.98 28.94
EUR/USD  1.36 1.35 1.38
Brent Crude 104 102 112
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1416 1425 1411


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median  
UST 10Y YTM  3.55 3.6 3.42
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
3.6
 3.4-3.9 
3.5
  
3.6
 3.5-3.7 
3.6
  
Bank of Moscow
3.75
 3.50 - 4.00 
3.5
 3.4-3.6 
3.3
 3.25-3.55 
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.9 4.85 4.81
OFZ YTM 3Y, % 7.02 7 6.96
OFZ YTM 5Y, % 7.68 7.7 7.59
Muni YTM (3Y), % 7.68 7.75 7.61
Domestic corporate bonds (1st tier), YTM (3Y), % 7.3 7.28 7.24


Cbonds Consensus 2011

17.01.2011-31.01.2011

World economy Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2010
Global GDP, % 4 4 4
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
4.6
  
4.2
  
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
4.3
  
Bank of Moscow
4.25
 4-4.5 
Citigroup
3.7
  
HSBC Bank (RR)
3.3
  
3.9
  
4
 3.5-4.5 
3.5
 3.3-4.4 
Sberbank ()
4.5
 3.0-6.0 
3.8
  
US GDP, % 2.9 3 2.8
Eurozone GDP, % 1.59 1.5 1.6
Consumer Prices (CPI, USA) (year-to-date), % 1.84 1.6 1.6
Consumer Prices (CPI, Eurozone) (year-to-date), % 2.01 1.95 1.6
Urals, US$/ barrel 85.65 85 91
Gold (USD/ounce, London) 1427.21 1450 1406
S&P 500 1378.75 1415 1258
EUR/USD  1.33 1.32 1.33


Russian economy Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2010
GDP Growth, % change YoY  4.22 4.1 4
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
5.4
  
4.2
  
5.9
  
4
 3.7-4.7 
3.4
  
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
4.5
  
Bank of Moscow
4.1
 3.5-4.5 
Citigroup
4
  
3.9
 3.5-4.2 
HSBC Bank (RR)
4.8
  
JP Morgan
4.4
  
3.2
  
4
  
3.5
  
3.5
  
Renaissance Capital
4.9
  
Sberbank ()
4.1
 1.5-5.0 
4.3
  
Troika Dialog Investment Company
4
  
4.6
  
4
  
Industrial production, % 4.54 4.4 8
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia) (year-to-date), %  8.57 8.5 8.5
Unemployment, % 6.94 6.9 7.2
Current account, % of GDP 3.49 3.35 5
Trade balance, % of GDP 8.13 8 8
Budget deficit, % of GDP -1.75 -2 -2
Real disposable income, % 3.96 4.2 4
Capex, % 7.69 8 6
Foreign capital inflow/ outflow, % of GDP 0.05 0 -1.5
Russia Gross External Debt, USD bln 504 510 500
Russia’s International Reserves, USD bln  549.1 545 479.38
USD/RUR  30.18 29.8 30.48
EUR/RUR  39.85 40 40.33
Dual-currency basket/RUR  34.72 34.35 34.91
RTSI 2027.5 2087.5 1770


Key interest rates, % Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2010
Federal funds rate, %  0.31 0.25 0.25
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
0.25
  
0.75
  
0.25
  
0.5
  
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
0.125
  
Bank of Moscow
0.25
  
Citigroup
0.25
  
0.25
 0.0-0.25 
HSBC Bank (RR)
0.25
  
0.5
  
0.5
  
0.25
 0.0-0.25 
Sberbank ()
0.25
 0.0-0.25 
0.25
 0.0-0.25 
Troika Dialog Investment Company
0.25
 0.0-0.25 
ECB refinancing rate, % 1.09 1 1
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  8.45 8.5 7.75
Deposit rate, Overnight, % 3.64 3.38 2.75
3M LIBOR USD  0.63 0.6 0.3
3M EURIBOR 1.46 1.5 1.01
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  5.02 5 4.06
IRS 1 year 6.56 6.28 5.34
RUR/USD NDF 1 year 5.83 5.5 4.85


Benchmark yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2010
UST 10Y YTM  3.65 3.75 3.3
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
AB.LV Asset Management
4.05
  
4
  
3.75
 3.5-4 
4.2
  
3.7
  
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
4
  
Bank of Moscow
3.5
 3.2-3.8 
Citigroup
3.65
  
2.5
  
HSBC Bank (RR)
3
  
ICEF, HSE
3.5
 3.3-3.8 
3.75
 3.5-4 
2.9
 2.7-3.6 
0
 UST 7Y YTM: 3-3.5 
Troika Dialog Investment Company
3.75
  
4.5
  
Bund 10Y YTM 3.31 3.25 2.96
Russia-2030 YTM, % 4.91 5 4.85
OFZ YTM, % 7.17 7.25 6.39
IFX-Cbonds average effective yield  8.4 8.15 7.52
Cbonds-Muni average effective yield  8.57 8.15 7.6


Cbonds Consensus 2010

23.12.2009-22.01.2010

Macroeconomy Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2009
GDP Growth, % change YoY  4 3.9 -8.9
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
3
  
Bank of Moscow
5.5
  
Citigroup
3
  
4
  
HSBC Bank (RR)
3.7
  
ICEF, HSE
4.1
  
3.3
  
KIT Finance Investment Bank
3.4
  
Morgan Stanley
5.3
  
3
  
3
  
3
  
Renaissance Capital
4.2
  
Troika Dialog Investment Company
5
  
5.525
  
4.9
  
Consumer Prices (CPI, Russia), % an. change  7.9 8 8.8
Urals, US$/ barrel 75.2 75 77.2
USD/RUR  28.52 28.2 30.24
EUR/USD  1.43 1.41 1.44
RTSI 1813 1850 1445


Interest rates, % Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2009
Federal funds rate, %  0.68 0.5 0.25
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
0.375
  
Bank of Moscow
0.75
  
1
  
HSBC Bank (RR)
0.25
  
ICEF, HSE
0.25
  
1.75
  
KIT Finance Investment Bank
0.5
  
Morgan Stanley
1.5
  
0.5
  
0.25
  
0.5
  
Renaissance Capital
0.375
  
Troika Dialog Investment Company
0.75
  
0.75
  
Refinancing Rate of CBR, %  7.89 8 8.75
3M LIBOR USD  0.85 0.75 0.25
MOSPRIME 3M (nva.ru, reuters.ru)  6.25 6 7.05


Benchmark Yield, % Simple average forecast Median Actual value, 2009
UST 10Y YTM  4.13 4.25 3.89
 
Source (company or analyst)
Forecast
Commentary
4.25
  
Bank of Moscow
4.25
  
HSBC Bank (RR)
3
  
ICEF, HSE
4.25
  
4.5
  
KIT Finance Investment Bank
4.2
  
Morgan Stanley
5.5
  
3.75
  
3
  
4
  
Renaissance Capital
4.5
  
Troika Dialog Investment Company
4.25
  
4.2
  
Russia-2030 YTM, % 5.38 5.5 5.45
OFZ YTM, % 7.45 7.5 8.68
IFX-Cbonds average effective yield  8.61 8.54 11.43
Cbonds-Muni average effective yield  8.96 9 9.97


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